Weather Experts Continue To Struggle To Predict Where Storms Are Headed

Editor’s Note: Due to the threat of inclement weather, this week’s edition of the News Examiner-Enterprise was sent to the press on Tuesday - a day ahead of our normal Wednesday print schedule.

Like a lot of things in today’s world, especially in the year 2020, things change and change in a hurry.

One thing that definitely changes day to day, hour to hour, and minute to minute are weather forecasts and predictions. On the other hand, something that never changes is the fact that these weather experts and their predictions are often very wrong.

Let me be clear that the following is not a negative shot taken against weather forecasters, I know they try to relay sound information, but I think we all need to acknowledge forecasting the weather is a big business (TV ratings, advertising sales, etc.) and by sensationalizing and adding drama into the weather more people tune in and more money is made.

When potential hurricanes begin to show signs of formation, the weather experts get overly excited and quickly begin to sensationalize the weather. They get on television and speak with such authority that if you don’t keep in mind that they are only making an educated guess at best (especially five, six, seven days out), it is easy to fall into the trap of fear and anxiety.

Just a few days ago South Louisiana, and specifically St. James Parish, were forecasted by the experts to be in the cross hairs (see accompanying photo of map taken Saturday, August 22nd at 6:10 p.m.) of not one, but two serious and potentially destructive hurricanes.

The experts even predicted that the two storms could potentially join together and form one giant super-storm.

Did any of that happen? I think you know the answer to that question.

Shortly after I screen shot the photo from my weather app on my phone, the Baton Rouge Diocese closed all Catholic Schools for the entire week and the St, James Public Schools followed suit on Sunday. The Post Office closed Monday, garbage service was suspended, only bread crumbs were left on the grocery store shelves, and even this newspaper considered suspending this week’s edition and not publishing a paper this week. That hasn’t happened since Hurricane Betsy in the 1965.

What I am trying to say is that big decisions that have big consequences are made based on these predictions - predictions often made way too far in advance and predictions often no where near accurate.

I realize hindsight is 20/20, but here in St. James Parish, a place that not long ago was in grave danger of taking two direct hits, we experienced literally no effects of Hurricane Marco (which was only a very brief hurricane before being downgraded to a tropical storm) and now Hurricane Laura is predicted to head to the Louisiana/Texas border.

Technological advances has changed the way weather is forecast, hopefully for the better, but as long as the weather is a business, the people who sell these predictions will continue to turn the weather into a soap opera, with drama intertwined throughout the entire episode.

In the end we should all be grateful they were, as usual, wrong on their predictions.

What else does the year 2020 have in store for us? We shall see.